1. Gia dau thoai lui khoi dinh, phan bu dia chinh tri co hep nhanh
Tinh den dong cua ngay 29/5, hop dong ky han WTI thang 7 ket thuc o muc 87.36 USD/thung, giam 1.54 USD hay 1.73% so voi phien truoc; hop dong Brent thang 7 dong cua o muc 91.12 USD/thung, giam 1.66 USD hay 1.70%. Day la muc thap nhat trong gan 6 tuan qua. Giam gia thang cua WTI dat 16.86%, Brent giam 17.46%, muc giam thang lon nhat ke tu nam 2020.
| San pham | Gia (USD/thung) | Bien dong ngay | Bien dong thang |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI thang 7 | 87.36 | -1.73% | -16.86% |
| Brent thang 7 | 91.12 | -1.70% | -17.46% |
| SC 2607 | 589.8 NDT | -4.4 NDT | — |
2. Dam phan My-Iran la dong luc cot loi, nhung thoa thuan van chua chac chan
Chat xuc tac cot loi cua dot sut giam gia dau nay den tu tien trien trong dam phan My-Iran. Theo bao cao, My va Iran da dat duoc khuon kho thoa thuan so bo ve gia han ngung ban va noi long han che hang hai qua Eo bien Hormuz, nang ky vong mo lai tuyen duong van chuyen khoang 1/5 dong chay dau va LNG toan cau. Tuy nhien, Tong thong Trump chua chinh thuc phe duyet thoa thuan va truyen thong nha nuoc Iran cho biet thoa thuan chua duoc chot, nghia la rui ro dia chinh tri chua hoan toan duoc loai bo.
Can luu y rang ngay ca khi thoa thuan duoc ky ket, viec khoi phuc hang hai qua Hormuz se dien ra tung buoc. Cac nha phan tich chi ra viec ra min tuyen duong, sua chua co so ha tang bi huong hai, khoi dong lai san xuat da dung va tinh trang xep hang tau cho dau se han che toc do phuc hoi nguon cung trong ngan han. Do do, dot giam gia manh hien tai phan anh phan lon viec rut bot phan bu rui ro hon la cai thien thuc te nguon cung.
3. Truyen dan chuoi nganh: chi phi nhua giam, ho tro cau van yeu
Dau mo voi tu cach la chi phi nguon cua chuoi nganh nhua dang truyen dan su giam gia xuong ha luu. Du lieu SCI99 cho thay trong 42 san pham hoa dau duoc theo doi tuan 29/5, 66.7% giam gia, chi 11.9% tang. Chi so gia san pham hoa chat Truy Bac giam xuong 833.84, giam 0.39% so voi thang truoc. Su suy yeu chi phi cung nhau cau lien tuc yeu ot tao ap luc ha gia cho cac san pham trung gian nhu benzene tinh khiet, va polyolefin, PVC giam gia ro ret.
Theo logic truyen dan chuoi nganh, trong mat xich tu dau mo qua naphta, ethylen/propylen den polyolefin, toc do giam chi phi vuot qua nhieu phuc hoi nhu cau. Cac nha may ha luu than trong thu mua nguyen lieu, giao dich giao ngay tram lang, tieu hoa hang ton kho cham, su ket hop giua ho tro chi phi giam va phan hoi tieu cuc tu phia cau cho thay gia nhua van con du dia giam trong ngan han.
4. Trien vong thi truong
Ngan han, ky vong dam phan My-Iran se tiep tuc chi phat dien bien gia dau. WTI co kha nang dao dong trong bien 85-90 USD, Brent trong bien 89-94 USD. Neu thoa thuan duoc ky chinh thuc, gia co the thu muc 80 USD; neu dam phan do vo, rui ro bat tang nhanh tren 95 USD. Voi thi truong nhua, thang 6 can theo doi ap luc nguon cung tu viec giam ton that bao tri PE va kha nang phuc hoi nhu cau sau mua thap diem mang nong nghiep. Thi truong nhua thang 6 du kien tiep tuc xu huong yeu do chi phi giam, mot so san pham co the co co hoi bat tang do ban thao qua muc.
