[Su kien chinh]
Ngay 20 thang 7 nam 2026, truoc bieu dien tang cua tinh hinh My-Iran cuoi tuan, gia dau lo truc quoc te tang manh, dong thoi danh gia thi truong plastic cung tang theo. Phan lon cac hop dong tieu chuan hang hoa trong nuoc deu tang khi mo cua, dau tho tang hon 6%, hop dong chinh plastic tang 3% len 7.913 NDT/tan.
I. Thi truong dau lo truc quoc te
- Hop dong tieu chuan WTI: +2,28%, o muc $83,644/thung
- Dau Brent pha break 91$/thung lan dau tien tu ngay 11/6
- Hop dong SC dau thu trong nuoc mo cua tang hon 6%
Thoa thuan ngung ban cuoi tuan giua My va Iran khong co luc rang buoc, lam tang danh gia roi ro ve rui ro van chuyen qua eo Hormuz. Premium dia chinh tri duoc giai phong tập trung, ho tro gia dau duoc tang manh.
II. Futures plastic trong nuoc
- Hop dong chinh plastic: +3%, 7.913 NDT/tan
- Methanol, Benzene: +4%
- Asphalt, PTA, Styrene: +3%
Chi phi dau thu manh me ke hop voi tam ly thi truong hoa hoc trong nuoc tang gia, giup futures plastic tang voi khoi luong mo co tang. Ve ky thuat, gia pha break nhieu duong trung binh dong, tao cau truc tang ngan han.
III. Anh huong den thi truong spot
Ho tro chi phi ethylene nguon dau con duy tri. Tam ly thi truong spot co phan cai thien, nguoi kinh doanh khoe mat gia ban thap hon. Tuy nhien, toc do mua hang cua cac nha chuyen che bien nguon ha dien dao con cham, su phuc hoi cau thuc van can theo doi. Co so thi truong PVC co phan cai thien, san xuat nguon dau duoc cai thien, tam ly bo sung hang cua nguoi dung cuoi cung duoc nang cao.
IV. Du bao thi truong
- Yeu to tang gia: Dong lenh dia chinh tri lien tuc, dau thu manh me, ho tro chi phi manh
- Yeu to giam gia: Cau lac bo nguon ha cham, mua hang cua nguoi dung cuoi cung thuc trang, giai phong ton kho cham
- Danh gia chung: Ngan han dau thu manh con kha nang duy tri, futures plastic co the giu vung xu huong tang, can canh giac voi su tich luy phan hoi tieu cuc nguon ha. Trung han: ke hoach bao duong thang PE/PP thang 8 va chuan bi cho mua hang truoc mua cao diem thang 9.
V. Du lieu thi truong chinh
| San pham | Muc gia (NDT/tan) | Ghi chu |
|---|---|---|
| Plastic (futures LLDPE) | 7.913 | Hop dong chinh |
| PP Raffia | 7.750-7.950 | Thi truong spot |
| HDPE | 8.200-9.200 | Thi truong spot |
| PVC (phuong phap carbide) | 6.600-6.680 | Mien Nam, da bao gom thue |
| Dau WTI | $83,64/thung | +2,28% |
| Dau Brent | >$91/thung | Break dau tien tu 11/6 |
VI. Diem theo doi quan trong
⚠️ Tinh hinh My-Iran va tinh trang eo Hormuz; ⚠️ Ke hoach bao duong PE/PP thang 8; ⚠️ Nhip do lo so macro trong nuoc; ⚠️ Xu huong don hang nguon ha — bao nilon va phim.
Tuyen bo: Noi dung chi mang tinh tham khao, khong phai la khuyen nghi dau tu. Thi truong co rui ro, can ra quyet dinh thuan trong.
